Introducing layered causal analysis as a method for foresight

Causal layered analysis (CLA) was first presented by Sohail Enayatullah in 1998, and it was studied and developed more thoroughly and accurately.

As a theory, CLA seeks to integrate experiential, interpretive, critical, and practical learning of the state of knowing (in a lesser relation it can be considered a combination of the pure sciences, social sciences, philosophy, and mythology). As a method, the tool is not in predicting the future, but it provides the means to create transformable spaces in the creation of the future. It is also likely to be used in the development of effective – deeper, more inclusive, and longer – policies.

Causal analysis is a layer consisting of four levels: dialogue (litany), social causes (social causes), discourse/world-view, and myth/metaphor.

  1. The first level of discourse: the formal, undisputed representation of reality. It is related to official and media statistics, it is the most specific level of analysis.
  2. The second level is the level of social causes: which has a systematic perspective. Information related to level one is explained in this level. A series of social, political, technological, and economic factors are discussed and analyzed at the level. Interpretations at this level are based on quantitative data, technical explanations, and academic analyses. The importance of this level is in the complete involvement of factors in the analysis and discovery of factors affecting events.
  3. The third level is worldview/discourse: it is located at a deeper level and in the unconscious and ideologies, the worldview and its related assumptions are made at this level without conclusions. The goal at this level is to find a deeper process of society, linguistics, and culture with regard to the subject and the fixed system (that is, until now the subject has been considered from the point of view of others, from this level onwards only the nature of the subject and the related system will be considered) In this level, four sub-levels are defined, and discourses mostly happen in these levels. interests of stakeholders; Ideological conditions (such as economism versus stability versus neo-Marxism); Civilized worldviews (such as the West, Islam, and Confucius); and epistemological (such as postmodern, modern, and classical)
  4. The fourth level is myth/metaphor: it is the deepest level and depends on the unconscious feelings of the subject. The focus at this level is on deep stories, collective archetypes, and the unconscious dimension of the problem or conflict. At this level, language plays less role and more attention is paid to the movement of mental ideas, by contacting the heart instead of reading from the head. Most of the topics are related to the deconstruction and redrawing of common metaphors.

The greatest role of this theory as well as the method in future research is to create a process of going back and forth between levels to create comprehensive and multi-level (plural) thinking in finding future research alternatives. You can see the division of these levels in terms of duration and reality in the image below.

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